The NFL playoffs are finally here.
After 17 weeks, we have identified the top 12 teams for the greatest single-elimination tournament in all of professional sport.
Eight great playoff matchups in the next two weeks. Or, to be more precise, eight games in nine days.
Then three final games to determine the world champions.
And the best part is that it doesn’t matter if you’re undefeated like the Patriots or barely above .500 like the Redskins and Buccaneers.
Once you are in the playoffs, anything can happen… and usually does.
The Ice Bowl. The Hail Mary. The Immaculate Reception.
The Drive. The Fumble. The Catch.
The Music City Miracle.
So let’s take a look at the 2008 NFL Playoffs and see if any magical moments are in store for us. And along the way, we can see just how my predictions from six weeks ago fared…
#1 Seed New England Patriots: 16-0, check.
I predicted that the Patriots would run their record to 17-0 before falling at home to the 14-3 Colts in the AFC championship game.
So far so good, especially since the Patriots have looked vulnerable in the final six weeks of the season. And the lack of a powerful running game (the Patriots rank 13th) does not bode well for the Patriots in an inclimate weather game against top-notch opponents.
But give the Patriots credit. They’ve taken everyone’s best shot, beaten the Colts and the Cowboys on the road, and done what no team in history has ever done, finish a regular season 16-0. So if anyone is capable of 19-0, it’s Bill Belichick, Tom Brady and the Patriots.
#2 Seed Indianapolis Colts: 13-3, check.
The defending world champions, even without Marvin Harrison, may be a better team than they were last year. Their defense is certainly improved and they have developed more weapons on offense. But to repeat as world champions, they will have to beat the Patriots in Foxborough, not an easy task.
But if the Colts do knock off the Patriots, no one will ever be able to say a word against Peyton Manning or Tony Dungy again.
#3 Seed San Diego Chargers: Now this is a surprise for me.
The Chargers went on a nice run at the end of the season even if the wins against the Colts and Titans were ugly and perhaps undeserved. But I like the Lightning Bolts in the rematch against the Titans, especially now that tight end Bo Scaife is out for the season.
But before Chargers fans get too excited about winning a playoff game, remember that last year’s 14-2 record earned the Chargers a first-round bye. That’s the same thing as a win Wild Card weekend. So before claiming the firing of Marty Schottenheimer a success, you better make sure you knock off the Colts and gain a berth into the AFC championship game. Remember, not making to the AFC championship was why Marty was fired in the first place.
And talking about karma, is it wise to sign general manager A.J. Smith to a big extension and contract before actually winning a playoff game?
#4 Seed Pittsburgh Steelers: What a stunning fall from mid-season when the Steelers were anointed the challenger of the Patriots and Colts. But a 10-6 record and an AFC North crown isn’t exactly a disappointment with a first-year coach.
Unfortunately without Willie Parker and OT Max Starks, the Steelers may have a short playoff run considering their opponent, the Jacksonville Jaguars, ran roughshod over the Steelers not three weeks ago.
#5 Seed Jacksonville Jaguars: Speaking of the Jags, is there a team on a bigger roll?
Right, the Patriots. 16 wins in a row.
Regardless, the Jags have been impressive down the stretch running the ball and playing hard-nose defense.
I really like this team.
Which, of course, means I’ve given them the kiss of death.
#6 Seed Tennessee Titans: Nice recovery down the stretch to make it to the playoffs, even it was against the Chiefs, the Jets and Jim Sorgi.
In only his second season, Vince Young has led the Titans to the playoffs. Now it remains to be seen if he can prove that the loss to the Chargers earlier this season was a fluke. Can Young pull off another upset?
I tend to doubt it, but if anyone can throw a team on his back, it’s Vince Young. Just ask USC.
Now for the NFC…
#1 Seed Dallas Cowboys: Top seed in the NFC, check.
Unfortunately since their win over the Packers, the Cowboys just have not looked right.
T.O. is out with an injury and might miss the divisional playoff game next week. Tony Romo has been in a funk since his relationship with Jessica Simpson went public. And the interviewing of half the Cowboys staff for opportunities around the rest of the league makes one wonder if ‘America’s Team’ has the right focus for a playoff run.
My hunch is that the Cowboys are primed for an upset, potentially resulting in Wade Phillips losing his head coaching job to offensive coordinator and wunderkind Jason Garrett.
#2 Seed Green Bay Packers: Number two seed, check.
Despite the Cowboys’ vulnerability, I’m simply not sold on the Packers this year. They’ve had a terrific run and Brett Favre has been unbelievable, especially at age 38.
But is it unthinkable for the Packers to have a bad day throwing the football and drop out of the playoffs in a hurry? Not at all. Look at how they played against the Bears only two weeks ago.
That said, with the NFC the way it is , it also wouldn’t shock me if the Packers made a return appearance to the Super Bowl.
#3 Seed Seattle Seahawks: No running game, check. A team that looks great one week and horrible the next, check.
Here is another NFC team that could be one and done or make it to the Super Bowl.
Aren’t ‘expert’ predictions great?
#4 Seed Tampa Bay Buccaneers: I genuinely don’t have a good feeling for the Buccaneers this year. I know some pundits have the Bucs as their dark horse. Not me.
A return to the playoffs is certainly an achievement and Jon Gruden deserves all the credit in the world. But the Bucs haven’t been healthy all season and haven’t looked sharp in over a month.
My guess is one-and-done.
#5 Seed New York Giants: What an inspired performance against the Patriots.
If the Giants can keep the momentum going, if Eli Manning can play worry-free for another four quarters and if the Giants’ receivers can stop dropping the ball, G-Men should pull off the upset in Tampa Bay and might even sneak into the NFC championship game.
#6 Seed Washington Redskins: Wow. Joe Gibbs proves again why he is a Hall-of-Fame coach.
This team was finished following a gut-wrenching loss to the Bills after the death of Sean Taylor. And I include myself in that group of doubters. But four impressive wins later with a backup quarterback who hadn’t played a meaningful down in ten years landed this gutsy Redskin team in the playoffs.
Can they beat the Seahawks?
I have a hunch they can. But even if they don’t, the Redskins have proven themselves champions..
So how do I see this weekend playing out? Don’t surprised to see three road teams walk away with victories.
As is the case with the NFL Playoffs, anything can happen… and most assuredly will.
This was originally published as part of my ‘Fourth and Long’ column from Jan 02, 2007 and can be found in its entirety here.